Fukuda's heir faces daunting task
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's surprise announcement late on Monday that he will step down replicates that of his immediate predecessor, Shinzo Abe, who also abruptly abandoned the nation's top post about the same time last year.

This turmoil represents the dysfunctional politics of the world's second-largest economy, buffeted by a forcible opposition camp and a severe business downturn. Taro Aso, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP's) best hope, will no doubt replace Fukuda. But Aso also will have a rocky road ahead, causing a snap election that may change the governing party, which would
represent a major power shift from Japan's de facto one-party rule for more than half a century.

Fukuda, 72, said on Monday he was resigning because of a political deadlock that has made it impossible for him to implement key policies, an adverse legacy of the ruling LDP's crushing defeat in the July 2007 Upper House elections by the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).

The LDP will hold an election on September 22 for the party presidency - this person automatically becomes premier. The party will intentionally showcase the election to capitalize on the dramatic effects of the televised presidential campaign, which the LDP needs to buoy approval ratings to win the next general election. This will be the LDP's last-ditch effort to regain the party's strength.

DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa, meanwhile, is likely to win his party's presidential election, which will be announced on September 8, without any contest, diminishing the public appeal of the DPJ's key policies.

Aso, 67, a political ally of Fukuda and currently the LDP's number two as secretary general, is expected to see off the possible challenge of Yuriko Koike, a former high-profile TV anchorwoman, and Sadakazu Tanigaki, a former finance minister, among other possible candidates for the LDP presidency.

"Aso is by far the most popular politician with the public," Gerald Curtis, professor of Japanese politics at Columbia University, told Asia Times Online in an e-mail interview. "He probably will call an election within a month or two of becoming prime minister to try to convert the bounce he will get in the public opinion polls when he comes into office into votes for the LDP. He has to move before the public discovers that he is no more able than Fukuda to get very much done that the DPJ opposes."

Beset from all sides
"In my weather-eye, things won't keep the ball rolling," Fukuda said in a hastily called press conference broadcast nationwide on television on Monday night. "I can see myself through an objective perspective. I am different from you." He raised his voice when a reporter's question referred to his coolly-detached attitude in what was an unusual resignation announcement.

Opposition parties at once criticized Fukuda by saying he was "quite irresponsible" in relinquishing the reins of government.

Fukuda's abrupt resignation announcement came as the government and ruling parties last Friday mapped out a comprehensive economic package worth about US$108 billion in response to the rising prices of consumer goods and crude oil.

Fukuda may have become keenly aware of the lack of his own leadership and he was beset from all sides from within and without the LDP. He had placed more importance on fiscal discipline than on spending more, but the package included tax breaks for one year for lower- and mid-income groups. The LDP's coalition partner, New Komeito took a strong lead in hammering out this tax cut in close coordination with Aso, which might have upset Fukuda.

To make matters worse, Japan hosting of the Group of Eight summit in July, Fukuda's first cabinet reshuffle in August and his promise to cut taxes have failed to boost his popularity. His administration's approval ratings remain in the vicinity of the mid to high 20s, according to recent public opinion polls. This is similar to the unpopular Yoshiro Mori administration, which ended in 2001 after about a year. Fukuda became premier last September following Shinzo Abe's resignation.

Mori, who still holds much influence over the LDP's largest and most powerful faction led by chief cabinet secretary Nobutaka Machimura, has repeatedly said Aso should be the next prime minister, suggesting Aso would be a good choice to head the party going into the next national election.

Another reason why Fukuda is quitting could be the poor prospects for the passage of a bill to extend the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean for anti-terrorism operations in and around Afghanistan in an extraordinary Diet (parliament) session. This bill is the conservative LDP's high-priority issue and is regarded as the cornerstone of the Japan-United States military alliance and Tokyo's commitment to international cooperation against terrorism.

The LDP last year once failed to have the Diet extend a predecessor law for the mission as the Upper House, which was dominated by opposition parties, rejected the bill. The LDP's coalition partner New Komeito remains cautious about military cooperation with the US.

"Fukuda just did not have it in him to get out and talk to the public and make his case," Curtis, the professor of Japanese politics at Columbia University, said. "When he realized that the DPJ was going to oppose him on the Indian Ocean issue as well as just about everything else, and when his numbers did not budge after his cabinet reshuffle, and with the Komeito apparently wanting an early election, he concluded that this Diet session would be as contentious as the last one and that he was too unpopular to take the party into the election. So he decided to get out before the Diet opens."

But Aso, popular among the young because he does no hesitate to say that he likes comic books and cartoon films, faces the same daunting tasks as Fukuda. With Fukuda's resignation adding to the political turmoil, early elections for the Lower House are expected, possibly within this year, and they could lead to a change in government.

Aso is "quite confident that he will be more popular than Ozawa", said Curtis, who had dinner with him in July.

Japan's diplomatic relations with neighboring countries, especially South Korea, may be strained if Aso is elected prime minister, regardless of his popularity in Japan. He has a hawkish foreign policy stance in line with former prime minister Shinzo Abe. Aso has said the Korean people voluntarily adopted Japanese names during Japanese colonial rule, infuriating Koreans and drawing protests from the governments of North and South Korea and Koreans at home and abroad. South Korean newspapers have already expressed wariness over arch-hawk Aso's succession of power.

Kosuke Takahashi, a former staff writer at the Asahi Shimbun, is a freelance correspondent based in Tokyo. He can be contacted at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .