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Sep 12
2008
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The Campaign as MinefieldPosted by BalaamsAss in Untagged |
This would be understandable if the nation were at peace and secure, with prosperity at its height, the currency sound and optimism in the driver's seat. In reality it appears to be otherwise. Major issues lurk behind the façade, serious enough that any one of them - or even several - could blow up before the election. Neither will they go away afterwards. The candidates are walking into a minefield, with few precautions being taken.
Here is a short list of some of the issues:
The wars are not going well. Somalia is a growing disaster, with the opposition radicalized and our Ethiopian allies weary and eager to leave. Pakistan, with growing anti-Americanism and a resurgent Al Qaeda, is in the danger zone. Afghanistan, after six years of western occupation, is sliding into open rebellion. Iraq is relatively tranquil, but the Maliki government's apparent refusal to integrate the Sunni militias into the security forces bodes ill for the future. The entire policy of direct military intervention, with its huge cost in lives and resources, is in precarious balance and in danger of collapse.
Domestically, the economy is sliding downward, slowly but surely. The financial system is on virtual life support, with one major component after another failing and requiring ever larger bail-outs by federal authorities. Such government intervention (which this week-end prevented the largest bankruptcy in US history from becoming official) lies behind every stock market rally that occurred since the crisis began. So far there is always hope, but no shadow of a solution or an upturn, so the prospect is for more tremors until the Big One - most likely an implosion of the derivatives market .
Despite the economic retrenchment the trade deficit continues to be huge, and will widen as US exports diminish due to the global slowdown. The federal budget deficit is probably beyond counting at this point. Eventually, regardless of short-term exchange rate movements, the huge amount of money being printed will pull the dollar lower and push borrowing costs higher, threatening the credit rating of the US government.
And on top of it all, we have neither caught nor killed Osama bin Laden, and the prospects of this happening are poor (though I certainly hope to be wrong on this one). Osama might not be so important any more, but the failure is significant in itself.
Despite all the above, doomsday is not at hand. The United States has been in trouble before, and shown amazing powers of imagination, inventiveness and recovery. But for such powers to awaken and start working there needs to be a national consensus, basic agreement on solutions and a firm hand on the tiller. There is not much sign of that yet. Right now the two parties and their candidates are going forward mainly on the basis of slogans and old ideologies. These might not work when push comes to shove.

