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Feb 15
2008
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The Fall of the House of ClintonPosted by Vox Populi in Super Tuesday, super delegates, pledged delegates, Obama, Hillary, fundraising, Democratic Primary, Clinton, Barack |
Hillary Clinton has fallen, and she can't get up. It's been one disastrous event after another lately for the once "inevitable" Democratic nominee. To recap, since the so-called tie on Super Tuesday, she's suffered eight straight caucus and primary defeats. She ponied up a $5 million loan to keep her campaign afloat. Her campaign manager and deputy campaign manager both left. Reports have surfaced of bickering and infighting among other staff members, and super delegates are abandoning ship. To add insult to injury, Barack Obama beats out Slick Willy at the Grammy Awards too. A contest even Jesse Jackson didn't win, to the best of my knowledge. It's been a bad week and a half for Hillary, to say the least.
Her problems are not unrelated and have built upon each other in a downward spiral. For a candidate who trumpets the fiscal policies and budget surpluses during her hubby's administration, she sure has been bad at budgeting money when it comes to her own presidential campaign. After raising a colossal $100 million plus last year, she blows most of her wad in Iowa for a third place finish and, as a result, is forced to raid the family piggy bank for the $5 million loan. Campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle is sacked in the aftermath and deputy manager Mark Henry follows her out the door shortly afterwards. Henry is the guy who wrote a memo advising her not to compete in Iowa, foreseeing her defeat there. If she would have followed this advice, perhaps she still would have some of that $100 million left to play with. It sure could have come in handy in building an organization in all the subsequent states she lost big in. Instead, she heeds the advice of 4.3 million dollar man, Mark Penn, and embraces the mantle of inevitability. Team Hillary drinks their own Kool-Aid and doesn't even bother opening campaign offices in any states past Super Tuesday, arrogantly thinking they will have the nomination, nee coronation, wrapped up by then. From my firsthand observation in a caucus state, I can tell you that Barack Obama's staff and volunteers were well organized and extremely motivated. By contrast, Hillary's supporters showed up on caucus day, but a staff presence and organizing efforts beforehand were non-existent, as far as I could tell. Is it any wonder then that Obama has been able to easily sweep eight straight contests?
The manner in which Hillary has so dismissively explained away Obama's victories is further evidence of her arrogance towards the electorate. Apparently, only the states she wins in really count. South Carolina didn't matter because Jesse Jackson won there, and all those caucus victories Obama racked up didn't count either because we all know caucuses are fundametally undemocratic shams. Since Obama's Potomac PRIMARY sweep, she has resorted to simply ignoring the election results. This was evident in her speech that night where she failed to even acknowledge the day's elections or to congratulate the victor. It's as if she is now living in an isolated bubble where, not unlike our current president, bad news does not exist, the insurgency campaign of Barack Obama is in its last throes, and it'll soon be mission accomplished as Hillary surges to victory in Texas and Ohio.
Speaking of Texas, Hillary seems to have taken a page out of the Rudy Giuliani playbook. Choosing to ignore primaries next Tuesday in Wisconsin and Hawaii, and instead, in her "bring 'em on!" moment, challenges Obama to "meet me in Texas!" And she is adopting this strategy because it worked so well for Rudy in Florida, one supposes? How fitting that Texas, home of the Alamo, is where Hillary has decided to make her last stand.
Despite all the troubles I've outlined above, it would be premature to hammer the final nail in the coffin of Hillary's presidential ambitions just yet. The polls in Wisconsin show Hillary within 4 points of Obama and it is conceivable she could still pull out a win there. The primary calendar also becomes more favorable to Hillary after next Tuesday. Obama is closing fast, but still has a lot of ground to make up in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where polls show her with a sizeable lead, particularly in the latter two states. Clearly, the pressure is now on Hillary to win big in all three states in order to stay alive. Even if she sweeps these states, Obama will still probably end up with more pledged delegates at the convention. If this happens, look for the majority of super delegates to get behind him as well and Hillary's lead among them to evaporate. I highly doubt super delegates will risk going against the will of the voters and back Hillary over a candidate who can attract and inspire as broad and diverse a coalition as Obama can. Obama is in a strong position, but don't count Hillary out. As the Clintons have shown in the past, they have more lives than Rasputin.
In latebreaking news, Hillary has now won New Mexico, even though caucus states don't really count. I don't think this exactly counts towards snapping her losing streak, however, seeing as how the election was actually held 11 days ago.

