|
Sep 16
2008
|
The Palin DilemnaPosted by BalaamsAss in Untagged |
The "safe" alternative is to maintain the present course: have the two nominees campaign together. The benefit here is that John McCain - not a particularly charismatic candidate, partakes of Sarah Palin's aura of energy, youth and "newness", as well as of the enthusiasm she seems to generate. With Governor Palin in the supporting role, he runs little risk of being upstaged.
The negatives of this approach, however, are substantial. Once reduced to a secondary role - a position she never occupied before - Sarah Palin runs the risk of losing the novelty, originality drive which made her so valuable in the first place. In addition, there is the danger that she will gradually get boxed in McCain's ideological position. And, let us face it, John McCain's policy preferences on national security, immigration, trade, the economy and foreign affairs are not far apart from those of President Bush, with whom he "voted 90% of the time. At the end of that road we are still looking at a "third Bush term", with an attractive Vice-President as the main distinguishing feature.
This gives Barack Obama a great opening. He and his team just got clobbered. But the campaign is still undecided, with eight weeks to go. In close games the team that scores first does not necessarily win. First quarter momentum does not automatically translate into fourth quarter domination. The Democrats have plenty of time to regroup, adjust, and go back on the offensive.
But there is a deeper issue here. The election is playing out in a national context where roughly 80% of the population believes that the country is on the wrong track. Neither party is addressing this gap between the political class and the electorate. On the contrary, they are using the same playbooks as in the last few elections, with the same nostrums and arguments - and the same reliance on negative ads. While this may satisfy the hard-core base, it does little to attract the floating mass in the middle.
It is here that Governor Palin provides the Republicans with a potential advantage. She is not a standard Washington politician. She made it on her own, against the establishment, and in Alaska - as far from Washington as you can get (except for Hawaii). Her career reminds one of the original 1854 Republicans, founded in a similarly distant Wisconsin, and with a party platform that became immensely popular because it answered the aspirations and needs of the country.
The source of Governor Palin's success to date has been her extraordinary rapport with the voters. She instinctively knows their concerns and aspirations and they, just as instinctively, trust her to deliver the answers. This is a tremendous talent, and one the Republicans can use to much greater effect than by just making her an attraction at McCain rallies.
In other words, Governor Palin could provide the hereto largely missing channel between the voters and the self-contained Washington establishment - to which Senator McCain does belong despite his protestations. In such a function she would generate a much greater impact and enthusiasm than in the conventional context to which she is currently confined.
The potential benefits to the Republican of allowing her to connect to the broad electorate are huge. The challenge is that if she truly connects and then passes on the information, some of the cherished Republican notions might have to be modified and discarded. This is where Senator McCain can truly earn his "maverick" title. He left the beaten path to pick his running mate. Will he now be able - and willing - to use her political abilities to the full?

