Scientific evidence says Dems are better than GOP at spurring growth & lessening hardship

In Unequal democracy: The political-economy of the new gilded age (Princeton, 2008), Princeton political scientist Larry Bartels presents his research findings that Democratic presidents have generally been more successful in both, spurring overall income growth and creating a more equitable distribution of income since World War II (see table). After allowing for a one year time lag between assuming office and the effects of policies, and accounting for several economic events that could have caused such a development, such as oil prices and labor force participation, Bartel finds that the correlation with a Democratic presidency and higher income growth remains significant. He concludes that correlation between higher and more equally distributed income growth and the incumbancy of Democratic presidents is likely not a mere repeated coincidence. Bartels conducts the same calculations for pre-tax for two periods: 1948-2005 and 1980-2005, and post-tax incomes for the period from 1980-2005, coming to the same conclusions.

 

Increases in pre-tax income, 1948-2005Increases in post-tax income, 1980-2005
PartyBottom 20%2nd quintleMiddle 20%4th quintileTop 20%20th percentile40th percentile60th percentile80th percentile
Democratic5.744.553.964.084.281.561.361.431.37
Republican-1.29-0.82-0.66-0.080.90-0.320.180.500.92
Partisan difference7.035.374.624.163.381.891.170.930.45

 

Bartels also finds that unemployment and inflation tended to be lower and GNP growth higher under Democratic preisdents. Regarding income inequality, Bartels points out that had Democrat presidents continously held office since 1945 inequality would be, ceteris paribus, roughly the same today as in 1945.

If you want to know more you'll find this info on Chpater 2 in the book; ISBN is 978-0-691-13663-9 - you can probably get it for less than $20 on Amazon; I can only recommend this book. Yes, it's scholarly, not pop science or punditry. Yet, Bartels has done an amazing job at making it accessible to all readers. Here's a chance to get the real political science and not mere punditry in plain English (math and social science jargon is, however, found in the footnotes.

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